Autos demand fall and global competition weigh on rubber markets

Industry Overview - Demand for synthetic rubber in Western markets is declining due to a slowdown in automotive and tyre manufacturing, alongside increased global competition [1] - Global butadiene and synthetic rubber prices are experiencing a downward trend as a result of these market conditions [1] Price Trends - European butadiene contract price for December 2025 decreased to €720 per tonne ($837/t), down from €1,050 per tonne in March 2025, marking the ninth consecutive decline [2] - In the US, spot butadiene prices fell to $562 per tonne at the end of November 2025 [2] - In China, domestic butadiene prices averaged Yuan 7,021 per tonne ($988/t) in November, reflecting a 16% decrease from October and a 42% decline from January 2025 [2] - Global prices for Styrene-Butadiene Rubber (SBR) and Butadiene Rubber (BR) have also decreased in line with falling butadiene feedstock prices [2] Competitive Landscape - The synthetic rubber industry, particularly in the commodity segment, is facing intense competition from Chinese producers, which has negatively impacted profitability and led to plant closures [2] - Notable closures include Arlanxeo's Port Jerome facility in France and Lion Elastomers' facility in Texas, indicating a consolidation trend in Western synthetic rubber production [2] Demand Variability - Demand for advanced rubber grades remains strong, particularly supported by the automotive industry, while commodity rubber grades are experiencing sluggish demand [3] Trade Dynamics - In Europe, extra-regional EU27+UK SSBR exports increased by 30% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a 49% rise in shipments to China [4] - Conversely, extra-regional EU27+UK ESBR exports fell by 10% year-on-year, primarily due to significant losses to India [4] - Lower butadiene prices in Asia, combined with soft demand and uncertainty related to US tariffs, have made ESBR production in Asia more competitive, leading to reduced European exports [4] - China's synthetic rubber production is growing to meet higher demand from the automotive and tyre industries, resulting in increased exports to the ASEAN region [4]