Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) Builds Momentum as Debt Declines and Palladium Outlook Improves

Core Viewpoint - Sibanye Stillwater Limited (NYSE:SBSW) is positioned for growth due to declining debt levels, an improving palladium outlook, and strategic initiatives under new leadership, making it a compelling investment opportunity [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company has achieved a sustained decline in net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA to 0.89x, significantly below its target [3]. - Management plans to refinance $675 million in 2026 notes through a small issuance next year, indicating a focus on reducing gross debt [3]. - The company reaffirmed its dividend policy, with payouts expected to resume at year-end [3]. Market Position and Strategy - RBC Capital raised the price target for Sibanye Stillwater from $10.50 to $12, maintaining an "Outperform" rating, anticipating a narrowing valuation gap with peers due to de-leveraging efforts and strategic direction [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from potential U.S. tariffs on palladium imports, which could enhance its long-term upside [2][5]. Palladium Market Dynamics - Sibanye Stillwater, in collaboration with the United Steelworkers union, has filed antidumping and countervailing duty petitions against Russian palladium imports, which have increased by 34% from 2021 to 2024, with a further 30% rise year-to-date in 2025 [4]. - The ongoing investigations into these imports may lead to tariffs that could restrict imports, positioning the company favorably [5].