多措并举应对美国财政收支风险带来的负面影响

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imbalance in the U.S. fiscal structure exacerbated by the Trump administration's policies, highlighting the negative impacts on both the U.S. and global economies [1][2][3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In FY2025, U.S. federal revenue is projected at $5.2 trillion, while expenditures will reach $7.01 trillion, resulting in a budget deficit of approximately $1.8 trillion, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits exceeding $1 trillion [2]. - Personal income tax remains the primary source of revenue at $2.66 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 10%. Tariff revenues have surged significantly, indicating a shift towards reliance on tariffs rather than personal income taxes [2]. - Major expenditures are concentrated in mandatory spending areas such as social security, Medicare, and Medicaid, with interest payments on debt surpassing $1 trillion [2]. Economic and Trade Impacts - The adjustment in fiscal policy is causing severe macroeconomic and consumer rights losses in the U.S. High tariffs are increasing costs for importers, contributing to inflationary pressures and potentially harming the international competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing [3]. - The reliance on tariffs to cover fiscal shortfalls is leading to efficiency losses, negatively affecting the majority of American residents, with the overall economic cost of tariff policies likely exceeding fiscal benefits [3]. - The U.S. education department's budget is set to drastically reduce from $268 billion in FY2024 to $34 billion in FY2025, significantly impacting public schools and vulnerable groups [3]. Global Supply Chain and Trade Dynamics - The "Great America Act," signed by Trump, is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, leading to significant changes in fiscal structure and global supply chain dynamics [4]. - The trend towards regionalization and localization in global supply chains is being reinforced by U.S. policies, which may increase business adjustment costs and fragment global trade [4]. U.S.-China Economic Relations - The sustainability of U.S. debt is becoming increasingly problematic, with interest payments projected to account for about 3.4% of GDP in FY2025, while actual GDP growth remains around 2%, indicating difficulties in servicing debt [5]. - If the U.S. fiscal situation does not improve, the risk of debt default could threaten the safety of Chinese-held U.S. dollar assets [6]. - Tariff increases are raising costs for Chinese goods entering the U.S. market, leading to a decline in bilateral trade, with Chinese exports to the U.S. down 17% and imports down 12% in the first ten months of 2025 [6]. Strategic Responses - To mitigate negative impacts, strategies should include maintaining global supply chain stability and engaging in tax competition, while also enhancing domestic production capabilities and exploring regional cooperation [7][8]. - Building an open economy driven by domestic demand is essential, with a focus on government investment in future industries and strategic sectors, as well as enhancing the role of the RMB in international trade [8]. - Improving fiscal management and preventing financial risks through tax system reforms and optimizing foreign exchange reserves are critical for ensuring fiscal sustainability [8].