Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-18 13:30Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's oral weight loss medication has shown promising results in maintaining weight loss for patients transitioning from injectable treatments, indicating its potential as a non-injection maintenance therapy in the GLP-1 market [1][7]. Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - The Phase 3 trial tracked over 300 obese patients who previously received 72 weeks of treatment with Wegovy or Zepbound, followed by a 52-week period of either the oral medication or a placebo [2][8]. - Patients switching from Wegovy to the oral medication regained an average of about 2 pounds, while those switching from Zepbound regained approximately 11 pounds by the end of the study [2][8]. - The oral medication significantly outperformed the placebo in maintaining weight loss among patients whose weight loss had plateaued during previous injectable treatments [2][8]. Group 2: Market Potential - Analysts predict that by 2030, the oral medication market will capture 24% of the global weight loss drug market, estimated at $95 billion, translating to about $22 billion [5][11]. - Eli Lilly's oral medication is expected to hold a 60% share of the daily oral segment, approximately $13.6 billion, while Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide is projected to capture 21% of this segment, around $4 billion [6][11]. Group 3: Safety and Efficacy - The overall safety and tolerability of the oral medication align with previous late-stage studies, with gastrointestinal side effects being the most common and generally mild to moderate [4][10]. - Approximately 4.8% of patients switching from Wegovy and 7.2% from Zepbound discontinued treatment due to side effects, compared to 7.6% and 6.3% for those on placebo [10]. - No liver safety issues were observed, and the complete results of the ATTAIN-MAINTAIN trial will be presented at an upcoming medical conference and published in a peer-reviewed journal next year [10].