经济增长显韧性！欧洲央行连续第四次按兵不动 宽松周期或已终结

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time, aligning with market expectations, as inflation hovers around target levels and the Eurozone economy shows resilience [1][6]. Economic Performance - The Eurozone economy appears more robust than in recent months, maintaining expansion even during severe trade tensions, with third-quarter performance exceeding expectations [1]. - A recent business survey by S&P Global indicates stable economic momentum in the final months of the year, supported by fiscal stimulus measures in Germany [1]. Inflation and Future Projections - The latest forecasts suggest a more robust economic expansion, with inflation expected to remain below the target level for the next two years before returning to 2% by 2028 [1]. - The ECB's assessment reaffirms that inflation will stabilize at the 2% target in the medium term [1]. Policy Outlook - Most ECB officials have signaled readiness to accept a temporary period of inflation below target, indicating that minor deviations do not necessitate immediate action [6]. - The long pause in interest rates will cap the current easing cycle at eight rate cuts, with future actions likely leaning towards rate hikes [6]. - Economists generally expect the Eurozone policy rate to remain at current levels until 2027, contrasting with the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, which have recently cut rates [6]. Market Expectations - Investors are beginning to lower expectations for further global easing, betting that the ECB may initiate its first rate hike as early as 2026 [7]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to hold a press conference following the rate decision to elaborate on the bank's judgments [7].