成本核算 || 2025蛋鸡行业一只蛋鸡亏损多少？

Core Insights - The egg-laying industry is entering a downturn in 2025, with egg prices significantly dropping to around 2.8 yuan per jin since February, leading to substantial losses for farmers [1][10] - The average loss per chicken is calculated to be 36.76 yuan from February to November, with small-scale farms particularly affected [13] Cost Assessment - Different farming scales have varying cost structures, with small-scale family farms facing high costs for feed, vaccines, and health care [1][10] - The cost for a 60-day-old chicken is 16.5 yuan, while the cost for chickens aged 60-150 days is approximately 20.3 yuan per chicken [11][12] - The production cost per egg is calculated at 3.003 yuan, leading to a loss of 0.203 yuan per egg sold at 2.8 yuan [12] Revenue Challenges - Egg prices and the prices of culling chickens have both weakened, with egg prices dropping to a low of 5.06 yuan per kilogram and culling prices reaching 8.45 yuan per kilogram [7][17] - The average loss per kilogram of egg production is approximately 0.93 yuan, representing a significant decline in profitability [17] Overcapacity Issues - The industry is facing overcapacity, with the national egg-laying hen population peaking at over 1.27 billion in September 2025, and an average annual stock of about 1.22 billion, a 1.3% increase year-on-year [8][18] - Farmers are delaying culling and implementing forced molting, extending the average culling age to over 520 days, which further slows down capacity reduction [18] Signs of Recovery - Recent market signals indicate a potential recovery, with egg prices in major production areas rising above 3 yuan per jin due to seasonal demand and reduced supply [19] - The number of replacement hens has decreased by 19 million, and there is still room for culling, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance [19]