2026产业债，低利差下的结构博弈

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that credit bond demand may slow down in 2026 due to various factors affecting both the demand and supply sides of the market [1][21] - On the demand side, the decline in deposit rates is expected to continue driving residents' assets towards wealth management products, with a steady growth forecast for wealth management scale in 2026 [1][21] - The proportion of credit bonds in wealth management products is likely to face challenges in increasing due to the completion of net value smoothing measures and a low spread environment, with the proportion dropping to 38.8% in Q2 2025, down 2.3 percentage points from Q4 2024 [1][21] - Fund sales fee regulations are expected to significantly impact short and medium-term bond funds, with potential redemption pressures leading to a significant scale of bond redemption, estimated between 1.04 trillion to 2.07 trillion yuan, with credit bonds accounting for approximately 330.9 billion to 661.8 billion yuan [1][28] Group 2 - On the supply side, low issuance rates combined with the "green channel" for issuing technology innovation bonds are expected to lead to continued growth in industrial bond supply, while policies for local government financing bonds remain strict [2][3] - The credit bond market is facing a "yield drought" as industrial bonds do not provide higher coupon assets compared to local government bonds [2][3] - The credit spread is anticipated to exhibit low volatility with potential structural opportunities, particularly in high-rated industrial bonds with maturities around 5 years [3][4] - The opening of amortized bond funds in 2026 is expected to drive demand for specific maturities of credit bonds, particularly benefiting mid to high-rated 5-year and 3-year bonds [4][33] Group 3 - The market is expected to focus on structural opportunities in industrial bonds, including the opening of amortized bond funds, trading opportunities in ultra-long bonds, and the exploration of perpetual bond spreads [5][4] - The perpetual bond market shows significant potential, with a current stock of 2.56 trillion yuan, and opportunities for yield compression expected in the first quarter of 2026 [5][4] - The liquidity spread opportunities in technology innovation bonds are also highlighted, with a focus on the performance of ETF net values and the trading activity of component bonds [5][4]