中诚信国际总裁岳志岗：预计2026年信用债发行量将超过16.9万亿

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in China is expected to continue its growth and play a crucial role in optimizing social financing structure and supporting the real economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and into the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a projected bond issuance of 16.9 trillion to 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Development - By November 2025, China's bond market is projected to reach a total scale of 194 trillion yuan, making it the second-largest bond market globally [1]. - The bond market has seen significant expansion, with a diverse range of products and improved foundational systems, alongside accelerated opening-up [1]. - In 2025, the cumulative issuance of credit bonds reached 15.18 trillion yuan, indicating a historical high and surpassing the issuance scale of 2021 [2]. Group 2: Issuance Trends - The proportion of long-term bonds (over three years) has increased significantly, now accounting for over 50% of the total issuance in Henan province, reflecting a trend towards longer maturities to meet the funding needs of long-term projects [2][3]. - The issuance of industrial bonds remains robust, with a total of 8.13 trillion yuan issued from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.52% [3]. - Conversely, the issuance of urban investment bonds has decreased to 4.97 trillion yuan, a decline of 12.03% year-on-year, indicating a shift in focus towards industrial financing [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to benefit from a stable macroeconomic policy environment, with continued support for direct financing and a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - The anticipated issuance volume for credit bonds in 2026 is projected to be between 16.9 trillion and 17.4 trillion yuan, supported by ongoing financing demand [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies in the bond market should focus on precise management of interest rate fluctuations and structural allocation to balance stable returns with opportunities for excess returns [5]. - The market's low yield environment necessitates a more refined approach to credit bond investments, with an emphasis on monitoring policy changes and liquidity conditions [5]. Group 5: Recommendations for Henan - To enhance the quality of the bond market, Henan should align with national strategic directions, innovate bond products, and support industrial upgrades [6]. - There is a need to diversify the bond issuance entities beyond urban investment companies to optimize market structure and support sustainable development [6][7]. - Strengthening information disclosure and financial collaboration is essential for improving market efficiency and supporting high-quality economic development [7].