欧盟汽车“禁燃令”缘何松动

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on fuel vehicles" requirements, adjusting the new car "zero-emission" target to a "90% reduction" from 2021 levels, allowing some fuel vehicles to enter the market under specific conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The European Council passed a regulation in March 2023 to ban the sale of new fuel-powered cars and small commercial vehicles starting in 2035, which was seen as a key strategy for decarbonizing the transport sector [2]. - The recent proposal allows for plug-in hybrid vehicles, range-extended vehicles, mild hybrid vehicles, and internal combustion engine vehicles to be sold after 2035, indicating a significant policy shift [2][4]. - This adjustment is viewed as the largest retreat in green policy by the EU in the past five years, aimed at providing breathing room for the electric transition in Europe [1][4]. Group 2: Industry Reactions - Major automotive manufacturers from Germany and Italy, as well as companies like Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz, have pressured the EU for this policy change, arguing that a single-path transition could undermine the resilience and survival of the European automotive industry [2][4]. - German Chancellor Merz welcomed the proposal, stating it is a pragmatic and economically reasonable approach that aligns with current market realities [2]. - BMW acknowledged the importance of recognizing the viability of internal combustion engines for the future [2]. Group 3: Concerns and Criticism - Critics, including automotive economist Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, argue that the proposal is the "worst possible solution," failing to provide a clear direction for industry transformation and potentially delaying investment and innovation [3]. - The proposal signals hesitation and compromise, which may lead to indecision in corporate strategy and wasted time in the transition process [3]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The European automotive industry faces structural pressures, with electric vehicles accounting for only 16.4% of new car registrations from January to October this year [4]. - The transition is hindered by an immature electric vehicle market, insufficient charging infrastructure, and supply chain issues [4]. - Rising energy prices and tariffs from the U.S. have increased cost pressures, leading to profit declines among major German automakers [4]. Group 5: Diverging Positions - There are significant divisions within the EU regarding the adjustment of the fuel vehicle ban, with some member states advocating for "technological openness" to ensure investment confidence [5]. - Conversely, some European automakers and environmental organizations oppose the policy relaxation, fearing it will slow the transition and weaken Europe's long-term competitiveness in the new energy sector [5][6]. - Executives from companies like Volvo and Polestar express concerns that policy reversals undermine confidence in EU regulations and could harm climate goals [5][6].