宽松浪潮中独行！日本央行加息为何救不了日元？

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to remain the weakest major currency against the US dollar in 2025, despite the Bank of Japan being the only major central bank expected to raise interest rates [1][7]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to continue its gradual tightening cycle by raising interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years [1][7]. - Market expectations suggest an additional increase of approximately 40 basis points next year, positioning the Bank of Japan among the most hawkish central banks in the G10 alongside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of Australia [1][7]. - Despite potential rate hikes, there is no guarantee that the yen will rebound in 2026, as most major central banks are nearing the end of their easing cycles [1][7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Debt Market - Japan's economy appears to be rebounding from a contraction caused by US tariffs, with corporate confidence reaching a four-year high and labor market indicators showing tight conditions [9][10]. - Inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three consecutive years, prompting officials to consider accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes [9][10]. - Japan holds the highest public debt globally, approximately 250% of GDP, which poses challenges for the bond market [10][13]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Bond Market Dynamics - Foreign ownership of Japanese government bonds and short-term bonds stands at 12.2%, more than double the level in 2010 and close to the historical high of 14.4% in March 2022 [10][12]. - The Japanese bond market is currently the worst-performing major bond market globally, with 10-year government bond yields at their highest since 2007 [4][10]. - The recent rise in bond yields may attract foreign demand, particularly from private pension funds and central bank reserve managers seeking to diversify away from dollar assets [10][12]. Group 4: Currency Intervention and Market Pressures - The yen has shown weakness despite favorable changes in the yield differential, with the exchange rate against the euro hitting historical lows and the dollar-yen rate approaching the critical 160 level [6][12]. - Japanese finance officials have issued intervention warnings but have shown no willingness to act unless the dollar-yen rate remains below 160 [12][13]. - The Japanese government's recent approval of an 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD) supplementary budget represents the largest stimulus plan since the pandemic, primarily financed through new bond issuance [13].