国际观察｜卖力自夸应者寥——特朗普“年终总结”引争议

Core Viewpoint - Trump's year-end speech aimed to highlight his administration's achievements while blaming the Biden administration for ongoing issues like rising prices and illegal immigration, amidst declining support and economic challenges [1][4]. Economic and Public Sentiment Pressure - Recent data shows significant pressure on the Trump administration regarding economic and public sentiment, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and approximately 7.83 million unemployed individuals, significantly higher than the previous year [2] - Polls indicate that nearly half of respondents feel substantial pressure from living costs, with about 60% expressing pessimism about the future, and over half believing the U.S. is in a recession [2] - Only 33% of Americans approve of Trump's economic policies, marking the lowest approval rating during his second term, with support among his core "MAGA" voters declining by 8 percentage points since April [2] Economic Outlook and Predictions - Economist Paul Krugman noted that while it cannot be definitively stated that the U.S. is in a recession, some economic indicators show "pre-recession" characteristics, contrasting sharply with Trump's optimistic portrayal of the economy [3] Speech Content Analysis - Trump's speech had three main focuses: 1. Blame-shifting, repeatedly attributing issues to Biden, claiming he inherited the highest inflation in 48 years and the worst border situation [4] 2. Self-promotion, claiming to have secured $18 trillion in investments, which is significantly higher than the $9.6 trillion reported by the White House, and falsely stating that inflation has stopped [4] 3. Vague promises regarding housing reform and tax cuts, lacking specific details or timelines, perceived as mere slogans [4] Midterm Election Implications - With less than a year until the midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a challenging outlook, as economic issues are seen as critical to election outcomes. Trump's failure to lower prices, a key campaign promise, remains unfulfilled [6] - Analysts suggest that if Trump's economic policies do not meet voter expectations, the Republican Party may face significant losses in the midterm elections, with public sentiment shifting blame from Biden to the current administration [6]