ZACKS·2025-12-18 15:56Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) is a leading player in the obesity market, primarily driven by its GLP-1 therapy Wegovy (semaglutide), but sales momentum has slowed due to increased competition, particularly from Eli Lilly (LLY) and the use of compounded semaglutide in the U.S. [1] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide) is gaining market share in the U.S. obesity market, supported by the SURMOUNT-5 study showing superior efficacy compared to Wegovy [2] - In a phase IIIb study, Zepbound users experienced an average weight loss of 20.2%, compared to 13.7% for Wegovy, indicating a 47% greater relative weight loss for Zepbound [3] - Novo Nordisk is seeking approval for a 7.2 mg dose of Wegovy, which has shown an average weight loss of 20.7% in its STEP UP study, outperforming both the 2.4 mg dose of Wegovy and Zepbound [4][10] Regulatory Developments - Novo Nordisk has filed for regulatory approval of Wegovy 7.2 mg in the U.S. and EU, with a positive opinion from the EU advisory committee and decisions expected in early 2026 [6][10] Market Dynamics - If approved, Wegovy 7.2 mg could enhance Novo Nordisk's competitive position, potentially shifting demand from Zepbound and supporting pricing power [7] - Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound have generated combined sales of $24.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025, accounting for 54% of its total revenues [8] Company Performance - Novo Nordisk shares have declined by 35.4% over the past six months, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [11] - The company's shares currently trade at a price/earnings ratio of 13.44, lower than the industry average of 17.18, and significantly below its five-year mean of 29.25 [14] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for 2025 have decreased from $3.66 to $3.57 per share, and for 2026 from $3.91 to $3.55 [17]