研究称2025年中国工业实现超预期增长

Core Viewpoint - The China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute predicts that China's industrial production will exceed expectations in 2025, achieving a successful conclusion to the "14th Five-Year Plan" amid rapidly changing international circumstances. Industrial production is expected to maintain stable growth in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In the first 11 months of 2025, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China increased by 6% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2022 [1]. - The contribution rate of the industrial sector to China's GDP growth reached 36.1% in the first three quarters, also at a high level in recent years [1]. Group 2: Industrial Investment - In the first 10 months of 2025, industrial investment grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with a decrease of 7.2 percentage points compared to the previous year's total [1]. - Looking ahead to 2026, major projects under the "15th Five-Year Plan" are expected to start, with an improved investment environment and increased financial support, leading to a stabilization in industrial investment growth [1]. Group 3: Export and Consumption - In the first 10 months of 2025, the export delivery value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a decline of 4.0 percentage points compared to the first quarter and a decrease of 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. - For 2026, while export pressures are anticipated to remain, resilience is expected [2]. - Consumer confidence and capacity in China are gradually recovering, with improvements in consumption supply quality and expansion. The rapid development of "artificial intelligence + consumption" is leading to emerging trends in instant retail, smart green consumption, and sports consumption, indicating a stable and positive outlook for consumption in the coming year [2].