东莞证券研究所负责人曹君瑞： 政策合力落地中国经济加速孕育新动能

Group 1: Core Economic Policies - The central economic work conference held in December 2023 set the direction for macroeconomic policies in 2026, emphasizing a combination of "strengthening internal demand" and "structural reforms" [2][3] - The conference highlighted the need for "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with policies exceeding expectations in both intensity and depth, reflecting a pragmatic and proactive policy orientation [2] - Fiscal policies are expected to include a moderate increase in the central deficit ratio and reasonable expansion of long-term special bonds to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment effectiveness [2][3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The overall tone of monetary policy is "moderately loose," with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations [2][3] - The central bank is anticipated to implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain adequate liquidity, while also improving the transmission mechanism of policy rates to lower financing costs for the real economy [3][7] - Measures to stabilize the real estate and capital markets will be taken to maintain a "dynamic balance" in investment and financing [4] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut and plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term government bonds, marking a shift towards a defensive liquidity management phase [5][6] - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased by about 30% from its peak, but remains above levels seen in 2019, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity management [6][7] - The recent technical expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is seen as a defensive measure to prevent liquidity shocks, with a focus on short-term government bonds rather than a return to quantitative easing [7][8] Group 4: Strategic Economic Outlook - The intersection of U.S. and Chinese policies is expected to create a more stable global economic environment, with China's focus on internal balance and demand-driven growth [6][8] - The U.S. faces challenges with weak employment and high inflation, leading to increased policy uncertainty that may hinder long-term investment in the U.S. economy [8] - China's clear policy path, characterized by a commitment to "moderately loose" monetary policy and "more proactive" fiscal policy, is expected to support the new development pattern and enhance the resilience of its financial system [9]