LPG shipping fundamentals Increasingly Driven By Global Energy, Petrochemical Flows Vs. Short-Term Freight Volatility

Core Insights - The LPG shipping market is increasingly influenced by global energy and petrochemical flows rather than short-term freight volatility [2] - BW LPG is the largest owner-operator in the VLGC sector, while Dorian LPG operates solely in this sector with 27 vessels [2] - Navigator Gas has the world's largest fleet of handysize liquefied gas carriers, operating 57 semi- or fully-refrigerated vessels [3] U.S. Production and Global Use - LPG production is expected to grow by 25-32% by 2030, driven by the gassy nature of maturing shale basins like the Permian [4] - LPG is gaining traction as a marine fuel, with companies adopting dual-fuel propulsion for new vessels [4] - The consolidation of naphtha-based petrochemical capacity in Europe is positive, as replacement capacity in Asia is more LPG-intensive, increasing ton-mile demand [4] Capital Discipline - Dividends are highlighted as the primary method for returning value to shareholders, with a stronger market response to dividends compared to buybacks [5] - Dorian LPG increased its quarterly cash dividend to $0.07/share from $0.05/share and raised the net income payout percentage to 30% from 25% [5] - Navigator Gas has repurchased an additional $50 million of shares for three consecutive years, with plans for continued share repurchases in 2026 [5] Fleet Supply, Regulation, and Environmental Transition - The VLGC sector has a 25% orderbook to fleet ratio, but strong demand growth and an aging fleet provide balance [6] - Navigator Gas has a benign orderbook of about 10%, with potential negative fleet growth due to scrapping of older vessels [6] - The impending ban on scrubber discharges is accelerating a shift towards alternative fuels [6] Environmental Strategies - BW LPG is shifting its fleet composition towards LPG dual fuels, while Navigator Gas is also building dual-fuel vessels [7] - The focus is moving away from scrubbers, with investments in scrubbers exceeding internal calculations, indicating a future in alternative fuels [7]