国债期货：债市延续回暖 超长债补涨

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.63% to 112.140 yuan, the 10-year main contract up by 0.10% to 108.005 yuan, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 105.840 yuan, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.01% to 102.434 yuan [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally declined, with the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 06" yield down by 3.8 basis points to 2.2410%, the 50-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 03" yield down by 4.65 basis points to 2.3810%, and the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Policy Bank 15" yield down by 2.89 basis points to 1.9031% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 468 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on December 17, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [2] - On the same day, 189.8 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market maintained a loose funding environment, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) at around 1.26%, and the anonymous click (X-repo) system overnight quote at approximately 1.25% [2] - The one-year national interbank certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.66%-1.67% due to recent liquidity easing [2] Operational Suggestions - The previous day's treasury futures rose across the board, particularly in long-term bonds, likely due to a recovery from previous declines and driven by unverified positive news [3] - The market is expected to experience small gains today, but the short-term upward trend lacks solid logic, with low probability for the implementation of a loose monetary policy by year-end [3] - The 10-year bond yield is expected to remain stable, with the upper limit of interest rate not deviating significantly from 1.85%, and support levels for T2603 to be monitored around 107.6-107.8 [3] - The strategy suggests a cautious approach with a focus on short-term trading opportunities, while observing the central bank's MLF injections and month-end bond trading conditions [3]