杭州主播大撤退，直播暴富时代终结？

Core Insights - The focus of the market has shifted from the superficial aspects of the internet celebrity economy represented by Lijing International to the underlying wealth flows and industrial logic [2][4][35] - The domestic live streaming market transaction scale has surged from 12.85 trillion yuan in 2020 to 35 trillion yuan in 2023, indicating significant growth beyond mere numbers and creating numerous wealth myths [4][35] - The transformation of Lijing International, once a symbol of the booming live streaming economy, reflects the profound changes in the live commerce industry, with many properties now vacant and repurposed for everyday use [2][35] Industry Trends - The live commerce sector has seen a rise in various players, from knowledge-based influencers to ordinary streamers, breaking class barriers and accelerating capital accumulation [7][40] - The industry has produced significant players like Yaowang Technology, which became the first live commerce stock, and niche brands that have rapidly ascended in their categories [7][40] - Despite the growth, the live commerce industry's growth rate is expected to decline to single digits (8.31%) in 2024, indicating a shift towards normalization and potential signs of a downturn [8][41] Market Dynamics - The e-commerce sector's incremental growth has peaked, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing from 97.59 trillion yuan in 2020 to 130 trillion yuan in 2024, but the year-on-year growth rate has plummeted from 14.8% to 0.49% [8][41] - The competition in the online market has intensified, leading to a resurgence of value in offline channels, as evidenced by strategic shifts among companies [12][45] - The average gross profit margin for e-commerce platforms has decreased by 8.3 percentage points over the past five years, with many merchants now operating at net profit margins below 5% [21][22] Challenges for Small Merchants - Many small merchants are facing severe challenges, including high return rates and declining revenues, leading some to abandon e-commerce for more stable income sources like food delivery [13][46] - The return rates for various categories have skyrocketed, with women's clothing seeing rates between 60%-75%, and some items even exceeding 90%, creating unsustainable business models [17][18] - The cost of high return rates is crippling for small businesses, with significant hidden costs associated with returns, leading to a cycle of financial strain [18][19] Strategic Shifts - Companies are increasingly shifting their strategies from high-cost influencer collaborations to more sustainable models involving smaller influencers and self-broadcasting [22][23] - The trend indicates a growing preference for long-term brand building over short-term sales spikes, as businesses recognize the limitations of relying solely on paid traffic for customer acquisition [22][23] - The industry is witnessing a transition towards valuing product quality, health-conscious business practices, and brand integrity as essential components for sustainable growth [32][33]