“绿通胀、反内卷、降息潮”，三条主线或推升有色金属价格！有色龙头ETF（159876）逆市摸高0.77%

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with all three major indices in the red, while the non-ferrous metal sector's leading ETF (159876) is showing resilience and positive momentum, indicating strong technical performance [1][9]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal leading ETF (159876) reached a peak intraday increase of 0.77% and is currently up 0.44%, trading above all moving averages, suggesting strong upward momentum [1][9]. - Major constituents of the ETF include Huayou Cobalt, which rose over 4%, and other companies like Baotai Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xiyang Co. which saw increases of over 3% [1][10]. Future Outlook - According to Huabao Fund, three main themes are expected to drive non-ferrous metal prices upward through 2026: 1. "Green Inflation" related to basic metals like copper and aluminum, driven by the growth of new economies such as AI and renewable energy, is anticipated to create a demand-supply imbalance, supporting price increases [3][11]. 2. "Anti-Overcapacity" policies in sectors like lithium and coal are expected to stabilize supply and demand, with lithium prices projected to rise from a bottom of 90,000-100,000 to 120,000 [3][11]. 3. A potential "Interest Rate Cut Wave" could enhance gold's appeal as a monetary asset, with expectations of price increases for precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [4][12]. Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its bullish trend, with institutions like Zhongtai Securities and CITIC Securities expressing optimism about the ongoing bull market [4][12]. - The non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) and its linked funds are recommended for investors seeking diversified exposure across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which can help mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [5][14]. ETF Details - As of December 16, the non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has a total size of 840 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [7][16].