英央行降息预期 美联储政策博弈主导走势

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently in a narrow fluctuation pattern around 1.3366, with market focus on the Bank of England's interest rate decision and upcoming US inflation data, leading to cautious trading behavior [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 3.2% year-on-year, a significant drop from October's 3.6%, marking an eight-month low and exceeding market expectations [1][2] - The decline in inflation is attributed to falling food prices, lower tobacco prices, and discounts on women's clothing, indicating a comprehensive easing of inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England have reached 90%, potentially lowering the benchmark rate from 4.00% to 3.75% [2] - The Monetary Policy Committee shows a split with 5 votes in favor and 4 against the rate cut, with Governor Andrew Bailey's stance being crucial [2] - Future rate cuts may be limited by the neutral interest rate range of approximately 3.5% to 3.75% [2] Group 3: External Influences - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut to a range of 3.5%-3.75% has provided some support for the GBP, despite a split in the decision-making process [2] - The uncertainty surrounding UK fiscal policy has diminished, with a reported fiscal buffer of approximately £22 billion, leading to a reduction in short positions on the GBP [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD remains above the 100-day moving average (1.3300), with a stable upward trend and increasing volatility indicated by the expanding Bollinger Bands [3] - Strong support is identified in the 1.3300-1.3328 range, while resistance levels are noted at 1.3380 and 1.3400 [3] - A dovish signal from the Bank of England could lead to a drop towards the 1.3250 support level, while a less than expected rate cut or weak US inflation data could allow the GBP to break resistance and extend upward [3]