补充预算将日本拖向债务深渊

Group 1 - The Japanese government has passed a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025, which supports a large-scale economic stimulus plan amounting to 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD) [1] - The approved supplementary budget totals 18.3 trillion yen, representing a 31.7% increase from the previous year's budget of 13.9 trillion yen, with over 60% of the spending financed through new bond issuance [1] - Concerns are rising regarding Japan's fiscal health as 11.7 trillion yen of the budget will be covered by issuing new debt, exacerbating the country's debt situation [1] Group 2 - Japanese government bond yields are rising rapidly due to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the economic stimulus plan, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.975%, the highest since June 2007 [2] - Japan's government debt is approximately 2.5 times its GDP, leading to projected interest payments of about 16.5 trillion yen in 2025, which will account for 1.7% of GDP [2] - Increasing bond yields will significantly raise interest expenses, constraining macroeconomic policy space and eroding national wealth, making fiscal balance difficult to maintain [2] Group 3 - The draft budget for fiscal year 2026 is expected to exceed 120 trillion yen, setting a new record for general account expenditures, indicating a trend of fiscal expansion [3] - The defense budget for fiscal year 2026 may surpass 9 trillion yen, marking a historical high and reflecting Japan's apparent militarization efforts, which could threaten regional peace and stability [3] - If market confidence in the Japanese economy wanes, it could lead to significant capital outflows, resulting in more severe market volatility [3]