顺差骤降，德国担忧贸易陷入长期危机

Group 1 - Germany's overall export is projected to grow by 0.6% in 2023, reaching approximately €1.6 trillion, maintaining the same level as 2022 for the third consecutive year [1] - Imports are expected to increase by 4.4% to around €1.4 trillion, resulting in a trade surplus of about €200 billion, the lowest since 2012, excluding the pandemic years [1] - The export outlook for Germany in 2026 remains bleak, indicating ongoing challenges in international trade [1] Group 2 - Exports to China are forecasted to decline by 10% in 2023, falling to €81 billion, marking the first time since 2010 that China will not be among the top five export destinations for Germany [3] - Imports from China are expected to rise by over 7%, reaching approximately €168 billion [3] - Exports to the United States are also projected to decrease by 7.3%, slightly below €150 billion, with potential further declines anticipated due to preemptive actions by German companies [3] Group 3 - Different industries in Germany face varying export challenges in 2025, with food exports expected to grow by over 6% to a record €86 billion [4] - The chemical industry is projected to see slight growth, particularly in pharmaceuticals and fertilizers, with both expected to increase by over 3% [4] - The plastics industry is anticipated to be significantly affected, with exports expected to decline by over 2%, while the petrochemical sector may experience a dramatic drop of 13% [4] Group 4 - The machinery sector is likely to see a 1.7% decrease in exports due to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, impacting EU machinery products [4] - The automotive industry is also expected to be heavily impacted, with a projected export decline of 3.2% [4] - The shift towards electric vehicles in China and other emerging markets may provide competitive advantages for Chinese manufacturers [4]