Robinhood looks better placed than Coinbase for prediction-market upside, Mizuho says

Core Insights - Robinhood (HOOD) is expected to benefit more from prediction markets compared to Coinbase (COIN) as users are more likely to use fresh cash for trading rather than selling existing holdings [1][2] - Mizuho raised revenue forecasts for Robinhood while cutting the price target for Coinbase due to concerns about prediction-market activity potentially cannibalizing crypto trading [2] User Behavior and Market Trends - Users of Robinhood and Coinbase are significantly more likely to engage in prediction markets, with a focus on economic (81%) and political events (49%), followed by sports (47%) [3] - Approximately 50% of Robinhood users plan to fund prediction market trades with new money, while only 12% and 10% intend to sell traditional portfolios or crypto [4] - In contrast, Coinbase users are split evenly between selling crypto (37%) and adding new money (37%) as funding sources, raising concerns about the impact on existing crypto trading revenue [5] Financial Projections - Robinhood's prediction-market business is projected to reach a $300 million run rate in Q4, leading Mizuho to increase its 2026-2027 revenue estimates for the company by 6%-7% [6] - Mizuho maintained an outperform rating for Robinhood with a price target of $172, while cutting Coinbase's price target from $320 to $280 due to weaker-than-expected trends and lower Bitcoin prices [7]