FDI in 2026: regional experts weigh in on future trends

Group 1: AI and Investment Trends - AI-related investment is gaining momentum across all sectors, particularly in Western Europe, which has strong R&D capabilities and engineering talent pools attracting international companies [1] - A new paradigm of strategic capitalism is emerging, where governments prioritize national security, technological capacity, and geopolitical leverage over mere efficiency [4][5] - FDI project volumes in Europe are expected to decline significantly in 2025 compared to 2024, with a subdued outlook for 2026 due to macro-level pressures such as tariffs, regional conflicts, and political instability [2] Group 2: Regional Insights on FDI - In East Africa, FDI approvals reached approximately $4.9 billion in Q3 2025, but political developments may affect momentum into 2026, particularly post-election violence in Tanzania and Uganda's upcoming elections [6][7] - The DRC-Rwanda security situation remains unstable, impacting critical mining corridors, while South Sudan's intermittent armed clashes disrupt oil production [7][8] - In Latin America, FDI inflows totaled $189 billion in 2024, a 7.1% increase from 2023, driven by megaprojects in oil, gas, and renewable energy, but current levels remain below historical peaks [25][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - Infrastructure and energy projects continue to attract foreign capital, with multilateral pledges channeling finance into power, transport, and broadband initiatives [9] - The digital and services sectors show promise, but greenfield project numbers remain small relative to the need, with private equity and strategic tech partners leading investments [11] - In the Middle East, FDI is increasingly focused on AI infrastructure, with the data center market projected to grow from $3.5 billion to approximately $9.5 billion by 2030 [17] Group 4: North American FDI Landscape - North American FDI ended 2025 cautiously, influenced by political ambiguity and policy crosswinds, with multinationals favoring M&A over new greenfield projects [20][21] - Key inflection points for 2026 include the USMCA review, World Cup infrastructure momentum, and the operationalization of industrial policy, which may shift investor focus from incentives to execution risks [20][21] - European companies are increasingly favoring US expansion due to concerns about regulatory fragmentation and high energy costs in Europe, with a potential rise in European FDI into the US in 2026 [22][24]