欧洲央行连续第四次会议按兵不动，加息还在多远的未来？

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its interest rates for the fourth consecutive meeting, expressing a more optimistic outlook on the Eurozone economy [1][10]. Economic Growth and Inflation Expectations - The ECB has revised its GDP growth forecasts for the Eurozone, now expecting a growth rate of 1.4% for this year, 1.2% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027, compared to previous estimates of 1.2%, 1.0%, and 1.3% respectively [5][11]. - The ECB has also slightly increased its inflation forecasts, projecting a rate of 2.1% for 2025, 1.9% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027, up from earlier expectations of 2.1%, 1.7%, and 1.9% [5][11]. - Factors contributing to the improved economic outlook include government investments in defense and infrastructure in Germany, as well as a tightening labor market [5][11]. Interest Rate Projections - Market expectations indicate a 50% chance of an interest rate hike by the ECB before March 2027, up from 35% prior to the ECB's statement [3][10]. - The ECB has reiterated its commitment to adjust borrowing costs based on the latest data, without pre-committing to a specific interest rate path [7][14]. - Most economists surveyed expect the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027, with a wide range of predictions for the latter year between 1.5% and 2.5% [8][15]. Currency and Inflation Dynamics - A stronger euro could exert downward pressure on inflation, and the ECB is closely monitoring the euro's appreciation [6][14]. - The ECB's recent statements suggest that the likelihood of further rate cuts has diminished, as the economic data has prompted investors to reassess the ECB's easing cycle [7][10].