摩根大通刘鸣镝：明年看好四大投资主题 对消费持乐观态度

Group 1: Market Outlook - The target points for MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and MSCI Hong Kong Index are projected to be 100, 5200, and 16000 respectively by 2026, indicating a potential double-digit upside [1] - Four key investment themes for 2026 include "anti-involution," growth in global AI infrastructure spending, the impact of developed countries' easing policies on exports, and the "K-shaped" recovery in consumption, particularly in food and high-end consumption [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The semiconductor hardware sector's valuation reached 4 standard deviations above normal but has since corrected to below 3.5 standard deviations, indicating overheated sentiment [2] - The outlook for the AI sector, particularly in energy storage systems (ESS), photovoltaics, batteries, and battery materials, is positive, with a focus on export potential in these industries [2] - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to favor growth-oriented sectors like batteries and photovoltaics, which are anticipated to outperform cyclical sectors like steel and chemicals due to their revenue growth potential [3] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence is seen as a key issue, with disposable income growth outpacing consumption growth, suggesting households are repairing their balance sheets [4] - The MSCI China Consumer Staples Index has the lowest price-to-earnings ratio and the highest dividend yield compared to the US, Japan, and India, making it an attractive investment [4] - A cautious approach is recommended for high-valuation sectors, while low-valuation sectors should not be overly underweighted [4]