“美国经济风向标”联邦快递(FDX.US)营业利润大增31% 上调业绩展望

Core Viewpoint - FedEx has unexpectedly raised its full-year profit and sales outlook, indicating positive results from cost-cutting and streamlining efforts as domestic demand in the U.S. improves, suggesting a higher probability of a "Goldilocks" economic soft landing in 2026 [1][7]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2026, FedEx adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) guidance to a range of $17.80 to $19, raising the lower end of its previous forecast, with the midpoint exceeding Wall Street's average expectation of $18.28 [1][3]. - The company anticipates a sales growth of 5% to 6% for the fiscal year, also raising the lower end of its previous forecast, which was 4% to 6%, and this outlook is stronger than the average expected growth of about 4% from Wall Street analysts [1][3]. Operational Changes - FedEx is undergoing a significant restructuring of its delivery network by merging its historically independent ground and air freight systems, which is expected to yield $1 billion in permanent cost savings in 2026 [2][3]. - The company reported an adjusted EPS of $4.82 for the second fiscal quarter, significantly higher than the previous year's $4.05 and above the average analyst expectation of approximately $4.12 [2][3]. Market Position and Economic Indicator - FedEx is often viewed as a barometer for the broader economy due to its extensive operations across retail, consumer, and industrial sectors, making its performance a key indicator of economic health [5][6]. - The company's total sales for the second fiscal quarter were approximately $23.5 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 7%, surpassing the average analyst expectation of about $22.9 billion [3][5]. Industry Context - FedEx's strong performance and outlook are seen as supportive of the narrative of a "Goldilocks" economic environment in 2026, characterized by moderate growth without overheating [7][8]. - The company has been affected by the grounding of MD-11 aircraft, which constitutes about 4% of its fleet, raising concerns about potential disruptions during peak delivery seasons, but actual growth data indicates effective management of these challenges [3][4].