Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-12-18 23:49Core Viewpoint - The price of electrolytic manganese has risen continuously for 13 days since December, reaching a new high of 17,820 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of over 2,300 yuan/ton, marking a nearly 15% rise since the beginning of the month [1][3]. Price Drivers - The recent price increase of electrolytic manganese is driven by multiple factors including supply contraction, cost support, and improved demand [3]. - Environmental regulations in major production areas like Guangxi and Guizhou have led to reduced production from smaller facilities, contributing to supply tightness [3]. - Rising water and electricity costs due to the dry season have increased production costs, prompting some small smelting enterprises to cut back on output [3]. - The ongoing construction of a 600,000-ton electrolytic manganese project by Ningxia Tianyuan Manganese Industry is expected to further tighten supply until its completion in the second half of 2026 [3]. Demand Analysis - The steel industry shows stable demand, with many steel mills maintaining production rates and year-end inventory replenishment needs becoming apparent [4]. - Specific downstream sectors, such as the 200 series stainless steel, exhibit strong demand resilience for electrolytic manganese [4]. - Recent bidding prices for spherical electrolytic manganese have surged to 16,600 yuan/ton, reflecting a significant increase of 2,102 to 2,420 yuan/ton from the previous round, boosting market sentiment [4]. Growth in New Energy Sector - The manganese industry is transitioning from being primarily associated with steel to becoming a critical component in the new energy sector, particularly in battery production [5]. - The commercial application of new battery technologies, such as lithium iron phosphate manganese, is driving explosive growth in demand for high-purity electrolytic manganese [5]. - Projects like Yunnan Youneng's second phase, expected to be fully operational by the end of 2025, will add significant production capacity for lithium iron phosphate manganese [5]. Manganese Industry Stocks - Key manganese industry stocks include Sanxia Water, Hongxing Development, Xiangtan Electric, Western Gold, and Zhonggang Tianyuan, among others [6]. - Hongxing Development holds manganese mining assets with a total capacity of approximately 250,000 tons/year [6]. - Xiangtan Electric has a total capacity of 122,000 tons for electrolytic manganese dioxide and plans to expand its lithium manganese oxide capacity [7]. - Zhonggang Tianyuan is the largest producer of battery-grade manganese tetroxide, with a production capacity of 85,000 tons [7]. - Western Gold's subsidiary, Kebang Manganese, is the only electrolytic manganese producer in Xinjiang, benefiting from a complete industry chain [8].