Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-12-18 23:56Core Viewpoint - The price of electrolytic manganese has surged over 2300 yuan/ton in December, reaching a three-year high, driven by multiple factors including supply constraints, cost support, and improved demand [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of December 18, the average price of electrolytic manganese was 17,820 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price has risen for 13 consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of nearly 15% since the beginning of December [1][4]. Supply Factors - Supply constraints are primarily due to environmental regulations in major production areas like Guangxi and Guizhou, leading to reduced production from non-compliant small and medium-sized enterprises [3][4]. - The southern production areas are experiencing a dry season, resulting in increased hydropower costs, which has pressured some small smelting enterprises to cut production [4]. - The industry leader, Ningxia Tianyuan Manganese Industry, is undergoing a technical upgrade project expected to be completed in the second half of 2026, further tightening supply during the upgrade period [4]. Cost Factors - Recent increases in overseas manganese ore prices have contributed to rising production costs. For instance, the price of Gabonese manganese ore rose to $4.5 per ton, up by $0.15, while Australian ore prices also increased [4]. - It is estimated that for every $0.1 increase in manganese ore price, the cost of producing electrolytic manganese rises by approximately 80 yuan [4]. Demand Factors - The steel industry shows stable demand, with many steel mills maintaining production levels and year-end inventory replenishment needs becoming apparent [4]. - Specific downstream sectors, such as the 200 series stainless steel, exhibit strong demand resilience for electrolytic manganese [4]. - Projections indicate that the production of cold-rolled stainless steel by 39 domestic manufacturers is expected to reach 1.4459 million tons by December 2025, reflecting a slight increase [4]. Market Sentiment - A recent auction for spherical electrolytic manganese by steel mills saw prices soar to 16,600 yuan/ton, marking an increase of 2,102 to 2,420 yuan from the previous round, which has positively influenced market sentiment [5]. Industry Growth - The manganese industry is transitioning from being primarily associated with steel to becoming a critical component in the new energy sector, particularly in battery production [6]. - The commercial application of new battery technologies, such as lithium iron phosphate manganese, is driving explosive growth in demand for high-purity electrolytic manganese [6]. - Projects like Yunnan Youneng's second phase, expected to be fully operational by the end of 2025, will significantly increase production capacity [6]. Related Stocks - Key manganese industry stocks include: - Sanxia Water (三峡水利) with a market cap of 12.486 billion yuan - Hongxing Development (红星发展) with a market cap of 5.311 billion yuan - Xiangtan Electric (湘潭电化) with a market cap of 8.448 billion yuan - Zhonggang Tianyuan (中钢天源) with a market cap of 7.403 billion yuan - Hunan Youneng (湖南裕能) with a market cap of 47.893 billion yuan [7][9].