Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-19 00:06Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of federal electric vehicle tax credits by the Trump administration has plunged the U.S. electric vehicle industry into a downturn, leading to a significant drop in sales and a shift in focus by traditional automakers towards hybrid and gasoline models [2][28]. Group 1: Impact of Policy Changes - The federal electric vehicle tax credit, which provided $7,500 for new electric vehicle purchases and $4,000 for used ones, was terminated on October 1, marking a significant turning point for the industry [3][29]. - Following the announcement, electric vehicle sales surged by 40% in September, but plummeted by 30.3% year-over-year and 49% month-over-month in October, with sales dropping to 91,000 units and market penetration falling to 5.8% [3][29]. - November saw an even steeper decline, with sales down 40% year-over-year to 76,000 units and market penetration further decreasing to 5.1% [4][30]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Brand Performance - Tesla's sales fell by 35% and 23% in October and November, respectively, yet its market share increased from 43% to 57% [6][32]. - Other automakers faced severe declines, with Kia EV6/EV9 sales down 71% and 68%, Ford's Mach-E/F-150 Lightning down 61%, and Honda's Prologue down 80% and 87% [6][32]. - Rivian was one of the few brands to show growth, with a 7.6% increase in November despite a 15% decline in October [6][32]. Group 3: Structural Issues in the U.S. Market - The U.S. electric vehicle market's reliance on government support has been highlighted, with analysts predicting a continued decline in sales and market penetration in the coming years [7][33]. - The lack of continuity and predictability in U.S. electric vehicle policies has created challenges for long-term planning among automakers [9][35]. - The average price of electric vehicles remains significantly higher than gasoline vehicles, with a $5,920 difference, exacerbated by the removal of tax credits [10][36]. Group 4: Traditional Automakers' Strategic Shifts - Traditional automakers are shifting from aggressive electrification goals to more conservative strategies, focusing on hybrid and gasoline models due to the current market conditions [14][40]. - General Motors announced a $1.6 billion impairment loss related to its electric vehicle business and adjusted its production targets downward [15][42]. - Ford has also made significant adjustments, including a $19.5 billion asset impairment and a shift in focus from electric to hybrid models, with plans to halt production of the F-150 Lightning electric truck [19][45]. Group 5: Comparison with China - The disparity between the U.S. and Chinese electric vehicle markets is stark, with China accounting for a significant portion of global electric vehicle sales [7][33]. - U.S. automakers face challenges not only in sales but also in technological advancements, with executives acknowledging the need to catch up with Chinese competitors [24][50].