Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-12-19 00:17Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that while the November CPI data marginally raises expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, the Fed may pause to observe due to significant noise in inflation and labor data [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The impact of tariffs on inflation is relatively mild, as there has been no further increase in tariff rates and the transmission of tariffs to inflation shows no significant lag [1] - The risk of high inflation in the U.S. is manageable, but the decline in November inflation may be exaggerated by disruptive factors [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Actions - The upcoming December non-farm payroll and CPI data, which are less affected by government shutdowns, will provide more reliable information about the economy before the January meeting [1] - The Federal Reserve is currently in an observation period and is expected to pause rate cuts in January, with potential cuts of 1-2 times in the second half of next year after the new Fed chair takes office [1]