甲骨文百亿项目融资突然“告吹”，美国AI泡沫恐慌来袭？

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's significant data center project in Michigan, valued at $10 billion, has lost funding support from Blue Owl Capital, raising concerns about the AI bubble and leading to a nearly 45% drop in Oracle's stock price since its peak in early September [2][17]. Group 1: Oracle's AI Investment and Market Reaction - Oracle's stock price surged from approximately $122 on April 21 to over $320 by early September, driven by expectations of substantial AI-related revenue from OpenAI [7][21]. - As investors shifted focus from growth narratives to the costs of realizing these promises, Oracle's stock began to decline, indicating a critical point in the AI infrastructure cycle [22][29]. - Jim Chanos criticized Oracle's rapid balance sheet expansion, suggesting that its return on new capital investments is only about 8.5%, compared to Microsoft's nearly 40% [8][22]. Group 2: Financing and Credit Market Dynamics - The private credit market is reassessing risks, with Blue Owl Capital withdrawing from the Michigan project due to increased financing costs and stricter terms, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards AI spending and Oracle's debt levels [10][25]. - Analysts are questioning the reliability of OpenAI's commitments, with concerns that OpenAI may not fulfill its promise of $300 billion in computing power payments to Oracle, which has a remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $523 billion as of November 30 [12][26][27]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Uncertainties - OpenAI's position in the AI market is becoming uncertain, especially with new partnerships with Microsoft and Amazon, which diversify its computing power sources and challenge Oracle's role [13][27]. - The pending agreement between OpenAI and Nvidia, which could involve up to $100 billion in investment, remains unfinalized, adding to the uncertainty surrounding Oracle's future revenue from AI [28]. - The market is increasingly focused on which companies can sustain prolonged periods of capital investment without immediate returns, with Oracle's traditional cash flow model being disrupted by the high upfront costs of AI infrastructure [14][29].