中金：预计2026年煤价将呈前低后高走势 全年价格中枢同比持平

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that coal prices are expected to show a trend of low first and high later in 2026, with the annual average likely to remain roughly the same as in 2025. Demand is anticipated to be a major drag factor, while supply-side constraints are relatively strong [1] - The coal industry is not experiencing overcapacity. The report attributes the unexpected decline in coal prices this year to excessive production beyond approved capacity, which poses challenges to safety and environmental standards. If supply and demand become excessively loose, there may still be room for policy tightening to regulate supply [2] - Demand for thermal coal is expected to remain at a peak level. The report forecasts that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, green energy may begin to squeeze existing coal power demand, but overall electricity demand is likely to maintain steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate of over 4.5% from 2024 to 2030 [2] Group 2 - The report suggests that while domestic coking coal supply may have limited upward elasticity in 2026, there is potential for increased imports of Mongolian coal, leading to a relatively loose supply-demand situation for coking coal. However, the actual completion of steel production cuts remains uncertain due to policy negotiations [2] - Overall, the report concludes that the supply-demand balance for coking coal in 2026 is expected to be relatively loose, with the increase in Mongolian coal limiting upward price elasticity. Nonetheless, Mongolian coal cannot replace high-quality domestic coking coal, which is expected to remain in a relatively tight supply situation [2]