中国距离高收入国家还有多远？朱光耀给出判断

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic growth potential during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5%, with the possibility of exceeding this range [1] - Factors contributing to growth include capital and labor inputs, which are expected to support over 3% growth, while total factor productivity is projected to contribute around 2% [1] - To achieve this growth potential, effective management of the transition from real growth to nominal growth is crucial, with a recommendation for more proactive macroeconomic policies and maintaining inflation around 2% [1] Group 2 - The expected nominal growth rate, if real growth reaches 5% with a 2% inflation rate, would be 7%, leading to an anticipated increase in China's economic total by 30 trillion to 40 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - By 2035, the goal is to double the economic total from approximately 100 trillion yuan in 2020 to 200 trillion yuan, with per capita GDP projected to exceed $20,000 [1] - Regarding income levels, China's GNI for 2024 is projected at $13,660, just $275 short of the World Bank's high-income threshold, indicating a potential transition to high-income status by 2025 or 2026 [2]