光大期货：12月19日能源化工日报

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, with WTI January contract closing at $56.15 per barrel, up $0.21 (0.38%) [2][16] - Brent February contract closed at $59.82 per barrel, up $0.14 (0.23%) [2][16] - Venezuela's oil exports face risks due to U.S. threats of sanctions and blockade on oil tankers, potentially affecting 600,000 barrels per day [2][16] - The largest refinery in Venezuela, Amuay, has resumed production after a power outage, with a daily capacity of 645,000 barrels [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 2.01% to 2439 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 increased by 1.59% to 2931 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.402 million barrels (5.38%) to 24.658 million barrels [3][17] - The Asian fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied through December and January due to substantial supply from the Middle East [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 increased by 0.68% to 2952 yuan/ton [4][18] - Domestic asphalt shipment volume decreased by 3.8% week-on-week, totaling 384,000 tons [4][18] - The market shows concerns over raw material shortages due to tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 fell by 70 yuan/ton to 15,320 yuan/ton, while NR and BR contracts also saw declines [5][19] - China's rubber tire exports reached 8.83 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.7% year-on-year [5][19] - The production of synthetic rubber in China for November 2025 was 779,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [5][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4748 yuan/ton, up 1.37%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 6862 yuan/ton, up 1.33%, with spot prices at $840/ton [6][20] - Ethylene glycol operating rates in mainland China increased to 71.97%, up 2.04% week-on-week [6][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were 2155 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices at $243-247/ton [7][21] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [7][21] - The parking of Iranian facilities may lead to a decline in imports in late December to January [7][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6120 to 6350 yuan/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [8][22] - HDPE film prices decreased by 144 yuan/ton, while LDPE and LLDPE also saw declines [8][22] - The market is transitioning towards oversupply, with inventory pressures increasing [8][22][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4400 to 4510 yuan/ton [9][24] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to planned restarts of some facilities [9][24] - Domestic demand is anticipated to slow down as construction activity in real estate decreases [9][24] Urea - Urea futures prices rose by 1.67% to 1708 yuan/ton, with spot prices increasing in major regions [10][25] - Supply levels have slightly decreased, with daily production at 191,800 tons, down 3200 tons day-on-day [10][25] - Market sentiment remains positive due to various factors, including Indian tenders and macroeconomic recovery [10][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased by 2.14% to 1193 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices [11][26] - Production decreased by 1.91% to 721,400 tons, while inventory levels showed slight fluctuations [11][26] - Demand remains weak, with expectations of reduced consumption in downstream industries [11][26] Glass - Glass futures prices rose by 2.31% to 1062 yuan/ton, with signs of stabilization in the spot market [12][27] - The industry maintains a daily melting capacity of 155,000 tons, with potential cold repairs expected [12][27] - Inventory levels increased by 0.57%, indicating weak demand persistence [12][27]