光大期货：12月19日金融日报

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations on Thursday, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 2%. Approximately 2900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rose, with a total transaction volume of 1.67 trillion [3] - By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.17% [3] - The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower end of the range since October, with limited differentiation between large and small-cap indices and frequent sector rotations [3] Policy Insights - The December Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are expected to enhance the short-term impact of policies on the market. The meetings emphasized achieving a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an anticipated GDP growth target of 5% for next year [3] - Policy focus remains on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new productive forces." It was highlighted that investment in both physical and human capital is essential for boosting residents' income and consumption capacity, which is crucial for macro inflation expectations [3][7] - The meetings also stressed maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure, indicating that the combination of fiscal and monetary policies will not change significantly next year, with a slight increase in scale compared to this year [3][7] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 100 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase and an 88.3 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on December 18 [8] - The central economic work conference set the tone for continuing a moderately loose monetary policy next year, flexibly utilizing various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [8] - The market anticipates a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2026, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [8] Precious Metals - Overnight, London spot gold and silver experienced a pullback, while platinum and palladium maintained a strong trend. The gold-silver ratio is around 66, and the platinum-palladium price difference has decreased to approximately 233 USD/ounce [5] - The U.S. November CPI rose by 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, also below previous and market expectations, indicating easing inflation pressures [5] - These inflation data reinforce market expectations for a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with continued interest rate cuts anticipated in 2026 [5]