华泰期货：存去化速度放缓，昨日碳酸锂盘面冲高回落

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a slight price decline due to technical corrections and profit-taking, while supply remains stable and demand is supported by the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [4][10]. Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract opened at 106,800 CNY/ton and closed at 106,160 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of -0.79% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,013,916 contracts, and the open interest was 672,711 contracts, up from 668,589 contracts the previous day [2][8]. - The current basis is -10,850 CNY/ton, indicating the difference between the average spot price and futures [2]. - The spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate are quoted between 95,300 and 99,800 CNY/ton, with a change of 500 CNY/ton from the previous day. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 93,900 and 96,000 CNY/ton, also reflecting a 500 CNY/ton change [3][9]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate is at 1,340 USD/ton, which is a 10 USD/ton increase from the previous day [3][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from lithium salt manufacturers is stable, with a projected 3% month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production for December. Demand remains robust, particularly from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, although production of battery cells and cathode materials is expected to decline slightly month-on-month in December [3][9]. - The industry is characterized by a steady increase in supply and stable high demand, with a continued trend of inventory reduction, albeit at a slower pace. Recent statistics indicate a weekly inventory decrease of 1,044 tons, bringing total inventory to 110,425 tons [3][9]. Strategy - The recent price correction in lithium carbonate is attributed to a combination of technical overbought conditions and profit-taking. The ongoing inventory reduction and consumer support are key factors, while uncertainties on the supply side continue to support prices. The market is expected to maintain high volatility in the short term, with a focus on capacity release and capital movements [4][10].