Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to a rebound in gold prices, which reached a two-month high during trading [1][2] - The lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data supports the dovish stance within the Federal Reserve, increasing expectations for potential interest rate cuts in 2026 [2] Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the lowest level since July and falling short of the 3.1% market expectation [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, also below the anticipated 3.0% [1] - The CPI data for October was missing due to a government shutdown, but the cumulative increase from September to November was only 0.2% [1] Market Expectations - The unexpected decline in CPI has heightened market expectations for two potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with a projected reduction of approximately 62 basis points [2] - Despite these expectations, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates during the January meeting, with a cut probability of only 28.8% [2] Geopolitical Factors - Rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have led to increased safe-haven investments, contributing to the gold price rebound [2] - The leadership changes within the Federal Reserve are closely monitored, with President Trump indicating a preference for a new chair who supports significant rate cuts [2] Gold Futures Analysis - The next target for gold futures is to close above the key resistance level of $4,433.00, while the short-term goal for bears is to push prices below the critical support level of $4,200.00 [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,433.00 and $4,450.00, with support levels at $4,338.00 and $4,297.40 [2]
COMEX黄金冲高收跌 聚焦美联储人事与4433美元
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-19 01:56