Core Viewpoint - The recent unexpected weakness in the US November CPI has led to a rise in US stocks and a decline in the dollar, which theoretically benefits gold. However, gold prices did not immediately strengthen and instead experienced volatility, indicating a complex market reaction [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - High inflation has significantly weakened the purchasing power of fiat currencies, driving demand for gold as an inflation hedge. However, the current rapid decline in inflation has cooled this demand, leading to a pullback in gold prices following the CPI report [2]. - The overall annual inflation rate in the US is currently at 2.7%, providing the Federal Reserve with room to potentially lower interest rates ahead of 2026. While lower interest rates typically suppress the dollar and benefit gold, the extent to which this will limit gold price declines remains to be seen [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the path of least resistance for gold remains upward, and a bullish breakout is not unexpected given that gold prices have been rising throughout the year [3]. - Future price movements will be closely monitored for two potential scenarios: the formation of a double top pattern or a false breakout. As long as gold prices continue to record higher highs and higher lows, the technical outlook for gold will remain optimistic [3].
金价冲高回落藏隐忧 但降息支撑其长线
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-19 01:56