Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to a rebound in gold prices, which reached a two-month high during the trading session [3][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, below the 3.1% market expectation and the 3.0% increase from September [3] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.6%, marking the lowest level since March 2021 and also falling short of the 3.0% forecast [3] - The unexpected decline in CPI has bolstered expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with traders anticipating two rate cuts next year [3][4] Inflation Data - The CPI data for December 2025 is the lowest since July, with a cumulative increase of 0.2% from September to November [3] - The Federal Reserve's dovish faction is likely to gain support from this CPI data, advocating for further rate cuts [3] Market Reactions - The decline in inflation has led to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing policies, which typically benefit precious metals like gold [3] - Current market pricing indicates a potential rate cut of approximately 62 basis points in 2026, although the probability of a rate cut in January remains low at 28.8% [3] Gold Market Analysis - February gold futures saw a decline of $8.3, closing at $4,334.08, with the next target for bulls being the historical resistance level of $4,433.00 [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,433.00 and $4,450.00, while support levels are at $4,338.00 and $4,297.40 [5]
COMEX黄金冲高收跌 聚焦美联储人事与4433美元
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-19 02:05