智通财经网·2025-12-19 02:15Core Insights - The November inflation data from the US provided a pleasant surprise to the market, with CPI and core CPI showing significant declines to 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, well below the market's average expectation of 3% [2][8] - The core inflation has reached its lowest level since early 2021, indicating a weakening trend [2][8] - Despite the positive news, the quality of the November inflation data is questioned due to statistical noise caused by government shutdowns affecting data collection [5][8] Market Reaction - The optimistic pricing in the asset market was evident, with the dollar declining and both stocks and bonds rising, particularly the Nasdaq which increased by over 1% [2][8] - Precious metals experienced a surge followed by profit-taking, reflecting market volatility in response to the inflation data [2][8] Federal Reserve Implications - The November CPI data is unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts in January, but it may amplify dovish sentiments within the Fed [8] - If December data continues the current trend of low inflation, it could prompt the Fed to reassess its rate cut path for the following year [8] Structural Analysis - Energy and food inflation remain the primary drivers of the overall CPI, while core inflation shows a clear weakening trend [8][12] - Food and energy inflation continues to run at high levels, with gasoline prices increasing year-on-year and global food prices also rising compared to September [8][12] Core Inflation Breakdown - Core inflation has significantly weakened, with core services being the main factor for the overall decline [10][12] - Housing inflation dropped from 3.6% to 3.0%, reflecting the impact of high interest rates on housing demand [12] - Super core inflation also continued to decline, with transportation services and leisure services showing notable price decreases [12]