瑞郎低位震荡态势 美瑞央行政策分化驱动

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is currently in a low-level oscillation, primarily driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Switzerland, with short-term focus on range trading and medium to long-term outlook dependent on policy paths and risk sentiment [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of December 19, the USD/CHF exchange rate was 0.7945, showing a slight increase of 0.0004 or 0.0504% from the previous trading day, with a range of 0.7948 to 0.7938 during the day [1] - The exchange rate has been under pressure since December, with a cumulative decline of nearly 1% over the last three trading days, maintaining a clear downward trend since mid-November [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The core driver of the USD/CHF exchange rate is the divergence in central bank policies, with the Federal Reserve completing its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.5%-3.75%, while the Swiss National Bank has maintained a 0% interest rate, providing strong support for the Swiss franc [2] - The US inflation nearing target allows for more space for the Fed's easing policies, while Switzerland's CPI fell to 0% in November, hitting the central bank's lower limit, although the probability of policy adjustment remains low [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The traditional safe-haven status of the Swiss franc is highlighted, with increased global risk sentiment leading to capital inflows that suppress the exchange rate, although excessive appreciation of the franc could trigger deflationary pressures [2] - The technical indicators show a bearish trend, with the price operating below key moving averages and facing resistance at the 0.8000 level, while the RSI has dropped to 22.79, indicating a potential short-term technical rebound [3] - The short-term focus is on a trading range of 0.7920-0.7980, with support at the previous low of 0.7915 and resistance at 0.7980 and the strong level of 0.8000 [3]