英镑维持窄幅震荡央行政策分歧

Group 1 - The core focus is on the divergence in interest rate expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, impacting GBP/USD exchange rate movements [1][2] - The market is pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England this month, with expectations of a total cut of 61 basis points by the end of 2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts three rate cuts by the Bank of England between February and June next year, bringing the terminal rate down to 3% [1] Group 2 - The UK’s November CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, providing room for rate cuts, but high unemployment and slowing GDP growth weaken support for the GBP [2] - The autumn budget provided a fiscal buffer of £22 billion, alleviating short-term debt concerns, but long-term growth expectations remain under pressure [2] - Technically, GBP/USD is consolidating in the 1.3310-1.3380 range, with potential movements depending on breaking key support or resistance levels [2]