国海富兰克林基金狄星华：非农数据罕见连发，就业降温再燃降息前景

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows a mixed situation with November non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, slightly above the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - October's employment figures saw a significant decline of 105,000, far exceeding the market expectation of a 25,000 drop, with the unemployment rate for that month not published due to data collection interruptions [1] - Market reactions indicate that the report is not viewed as disastrous, with the consensus remaining that a "soft landing" for the economy is still the baseline scenario, providing a buffer for risk assets [1] Group 2 - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2026 have increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in January rising from 22% to 26.6% [1] - Despite recent adjustments in the U.S. stock market, the volatility is not as severe as in November of last year, although market sentiment is influenced by concerns over the Fed's monetary policy, potential rate hikes in Japan, and exaggerated discussions about an AI bubble [1] - The analysis suggests that the U.S. economy and job market face downward pressure, making further rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 a likely scenario [2] Group 3 - The overall valuation of U.S. stocks is considered not cheap, but the price movements of major indices and the "Tech Seven" are primarily driven by earnings contributions, indicating no significant market bubble [2] - AI technology is expected to gradually penetrate all industries, with widespread applications anticipated in various B2B and B2C sectors within the next one to two years [2] - Companies that are temporarily affected by negative sentiment or information shocks are not necessarily in a bad position, as this reflects the necessary market discipline during rapid industry expansion [2]