大有期货：CPI降温强化降息预期 但黄金上涨动能趋缓

Macro News - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the job market suggests the Fed should continue to lower interest rates, with current rates being 50 to 100 basis points above neutral levels. He does not believe inflation will accelerate again [1] - U.S. President Trump announced that he will soon declare the next Federal Reserve Chair, who will support low interest rates. Wage growth is significantly outpacing inflation, and tax cuts will show effects next year [1] - U.S. retail sales for October remained flat month-over-month, with an estimate of 0.1% and a previous value of 0.2% [1] Institutional Perspectives - The recently released U.S. CPI and core CPI data for November 2025 were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, both significantly below market expectations. This inflation report confirms the ongoing easing of price pressures, reinforcing market expectations for the Fed to maintain or even increase the pace of rate cuts in future policy meetings [1] - The theoretical support for non-interest-bearing precious metal assets is strong due to macro policy. However, market trading is influenced by the gap between expectations and reality. Since the Fed signaled a shift in policy at the end of 2023, gold and silver prices have seen substantial increases, particularly gold reaching a historical high of $4,300 per ounce [1] - Despite favorable data, the marginal uplifting effect on prices has significantly weakened. A delicate balance of bullish and bearish factors is forming at this high level. On one hand, solid rate cut expectations limit the potential for significant declines; on the other hand, the lack of new unexpected positive news makes it difficult to push prices higher. The market may enter a phase of high-level consolidation, using time to create space, digesting profits, reshaping consensus, and awaiting the next clear macro data or policy signal to guide direction [1]