经济观察丨“十五五”时期中国如何“解锁”内需潜力？

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming economic strategy in China is on domestic demand, emphasizing the need to build a strong domestic market as highlighted in the recent Central Economic Work Conference [1] - Experts indicate that the most pressing issue in China's economic operation is the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, suggesting that the evolution of supply-demand relationships will be a key observation point for economic development [1] - Zhang Bin from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences emphasizes the importance of breaking the negative transmission chain of demand insufficiency, advocating for policies that target "fast variables" like credit and investment to stimulate "slow variables" such as income and consumption [1] Group 2 - Huang Wentao, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, interprets the recent emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a strategic move rather than a temporary measure, indicating future policy directions [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent Central Economic Work Conference suggest a focus on integrating investments in both physical goods and human capital, with increased fiscal support expected in areas related to health, employment, and education [2] - Service consumption is identified as a crucial pillar for expanding domestic demand, with expectations that China's per capita GDP will reach $14,000 by the end of this year, paving the way for a shift from goods consumption to service consumption [2] Group 3 - The "Two New" policy, which includes large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in programs for consumer goods, is recognized as a practical measure to boost consumption, with plans to optimize its implementation [2] - Suggestions for optimizing policy subsidies include focusing on service goods and infrastructure investments, such as building sports facilities and theaters, which can ultimately enhance consumer experiences [2] - The government has made positive strides in areas like childbirth and preschool education subsidies, indicating a promising start for future policies aimed at reducing living costs and promoting consumption growth [3]