道富策略师：日元短期或波动 135–140仍是中长期关键区间

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates and the Japanese yen's exchange rate against the US dollar [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Masahiko Loo, a senior fixed income strategist at State Street Global Advisors, suggests that if the BOJ raises interest rates in the future, the market may interpret it as a "dovish hike," leading to short-term fluctuations in the yen [1] - Despite potential short-term volatility, the yen is expected to be supported in the medium to long term by two factors: increased expectations of the Federal Reserve shifting to a loose monetary policy and Japanese investors gradually increasing their foreign exchange hedging ratios from historically low levels [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Loo maintains a long-term target for the USD/JPY exchange rate in the range of 135-140 [1] - The focus is shifting to the upcoming press conference by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, where Loo anticipates a neutral tone in his remarks, with forward guidance possibly indicating a gradual normalization of monetary policy between 2026 and 2027 [1] - Ueda is expected to balance the outlook on inflation, wage growth, and financial market stability without signaling overly hawkish or dovish stances [1]