创30年来最高水平，日本央行宣布加息！高市早苗推18.3万亿日元财政刺激，“渡边太太”提前撤离

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since September 1995 and signaling the end of the ultra-loose monetary policy era [1][21][25] - This decision is aimed at breaking the long-standing cycle of low interest rates, low inflation, and low growth in Japan [1][21] - Japan's inflation has exceeded the central bank's target of 2% for 44 consecutive months, with the core consumer price index (CPI) rising by 3.0% in October and decreasing to 2.9% in November [4][27] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen has contributed to inflationary pressures, with the yen trading around 155 against the dollar, close to levels that previously prompted government intervention [6][29] - The government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has announced a fiscal stimulus plan amounting to 18.3 trillion yen, which raises concerns about the mismatch between tight monetary policy and expansive fiscal policy [3][31] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 2%, the highest since May 2006, indicating rising borrowing costs for the government [8][31] Group 3 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Japan's government debt will reach 229.6% of GDP by 2025, the highest among developed countries [9][31] - The combination of tightening monetary policy and expanding fiscal policy is viewed as a "dangerous leap," potentially leading to increased liquidity pressure in the bond market and undermining the credibility of monetary policy [9][32] - The Japanese economy has shown signs of fatigue, with the real GDP contracting by 2.3% in the third quarter, indicating a return to recession after six quarters of growth [11][34] Group 4 - The shift in Japan's monetary policy is expected to impact global capital markets, particularly concerning the risks associated with yen carry trades, which have been a significant source of global liquidity [12][35] - Speculative funds have begun to withdraw, with net positions in yen contracts shrinking by over 60% from December 2 to December 16 [18][41] - Analysts suggest that the current environment may lead to a "low carry, high allocation" phase in global capital flows, as the attractiveness of carry trades diminishes [19][42]