澳新银行：日本加息路径模糊 日元2026年仍承压

Core Viewpoint - Despite the Bank of Japan initiating interest rate hikes, the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen, indicating that the market lacks clear guidance on the future pace and magnitude of these hikes [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The rise in USD/JPY following the Bank of Japan's rate hike suggests that the market has not yet seen definitive signs regarding the pace or extent of future rate increases [1] - The upcoming press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda may provide further clarity on this issue [1] Group 2: Future Projections - ANZ forecasts that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates through 2026, but the yen is expected to lag behind G10 currencies over the next year due to unfavorable interest rate differentials [1] - ANZ maintains its prediction for the USD/JPY exchange rate to reach 153 by the end of 2026, indicating that even with gradual normalization of Japan's monetary policy, the yen's relative interest rate advantage will remain insufficient to support significant appreciation [1] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The ongoing divergence in monetary policies among major global central banks suggests that the yen's traditional role as a funding currency may not fundamentally change in the short term [1]