库存攀升至历史峰值 氧化铝期货弱势震荡为主

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a significant downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.60% to 2505.0 CNY/ton [1] Group 1: Global Production and Capacity - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global aluminum oxide production in October 2025 is projected to be 13.42 million tons, with a total of 127.98 million tons produced from January to October 2025 [2] - Vedanta Aluminium has successfully expanded the capacity of its Lanjigarh refinery to 5 million tons per year, making it the second-largest aluminum oxide refining facility outside of China and increasing India's total aluminum oxide refining capacity to approximately 13 million tons per year, positioning India as the third-largest aluminum oxide producer globally [2] Group 2: Regional Pricing and Market Trends - As of December 18, the spot prices for aluminum oxide in various regions are as follows: Shandong at 2715 CNY/ton, Henan at 2810 CNY/ton, Shanxi at 2805 CNY/ton, Guizhou at 2895 CNY/ton, and Guangxi at 2870 CNY/ton, all reflecting a decrease of 5 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The aluminum oxide futures price has fallen below the average cash cost line for the industry, with overall inventory levels reaching historical peaks. Some production companies are undergoing maintenance, and downstream enterprises are considering increasing raw material stockpiles [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Guangzhou Futures indicates that the aluminum oxide price is gradually seeking a bottom support level, with the main contract price expected to operate within a range of 2500-2750 CNY/ton due to production losses leading to potential high-cost capacity exit [4] - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures notes that after hitting a low, aluminum oxide futures may experience a slight rebound due to demand corrections, but the fundamental market remains pressured by continued inventory inflow and sufficient supply from imported aluminum oxide [4]