Canopy Growth Is Surging and Analysts Still Think It Can Gain 40% from Here

Core Viewpoint - Canopy Growth (CGC) shares have experienced a significant increase due to anticipated federal initiatives, including the reclassification of cannabis as a "Schedule III" drug and a potential Medicare pilot program for seniors [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - CGC shares have risen by 90% compared to their low in late November [2]. - The stock is currently trading above its major moving averages (50-day, 100-day, 200-day), indicating bullish momentum as the company approaches 2026 [4]. Group 2: Federal Initiatives - The expected federal initiatives are likely to be transformative for cannabis stocks, facilitating institutional investments and easing tax burdens and banking restrictions, which could enhance revenue potential for CGC [3]. Group 3: Financial Strength - In the latest quarter, CGC narrowed its adjusted EBITDA loss to $3 million, reflecting positive momentum in the Canadian adult-use market [5]. - The company has approximately $300 million in liquidity, positioning it well for growth initiatives without immediate financial pressure [5]. Group 4: Strategic Acquisitions - Canopy Growth's recent acquisition of MTL Cannabis for about $179 million is expected to increase its domestic market share and contribute high-margin revenue [4]. Group 5: Historical Performance - CGC stock has historically performed well at the beginning of the year, averaging a 12% increase in January since 2015, supporting the case for maintaining exposure to the stock heading into 2026 [6][7].